(Use Python) Data have been accumulated on the heights of children relative to their parents. Suppose that the probabilities that a tall parent will have a tall, medium-height, or short child are 0.6,0.2, and 0.2, respectively; the probabilities that a medium-height parent will have a tall, medium-height, or short child are 0.1, 0.7, and 0.2, respectively; and the probabilities that a short parent will have a tall, medium-height, or short child are 0.2,0.4, and 0.4, respectively. (a) Write down the transition matrix for this Markov chain. (b) What is the probability that a tall person will have a short grandchild? (c) If 20% of the current population is tall, 50% is of medium height, and 30% is short, what will the distribution be in three generations? (d) What proportion of the population will be tall, of medium height, and short in the long run?

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Answer 1

(a) The transition matrix is: (b) The probability that a tall person will have a short grandchild is P_{13}^2 + P_{23}^2 + P_{33}^2. Using the transition matrix from part (a), we haveP_{13}^2 + P_{23}^2 + P_{33}^2 = (0.2)(0.2) + (0.2)(0.4) + (0.4)(0.2) = 0.12(c) If 20% of the current population is tall, 50% is of medium height, and 30% is short, we can represent the initial distribution as a row vector: X_0 = [0.2 0.5 0.3].

To find the distribution in three generations, we can multiply this vector by the third power of the transition matrix from part (a): X_3 = X_0P^3 = [0.2 0.5 0.3] *  [0.5 0.1 0.4; 0.2 0.7 0.1; 0.2 0.4 0.4]^3 = [0.3506 0.4023 0.2471]In three generations, the distribution will be approximately 35.06% tall, 40.23% medium-height, and 24.71% short.(d) To find the long-run proportions, we need to solve for the stationary distribution, which is a row vector π such that πP = π and ∑π_i = 1. We can find this by solving the system of linear equations: π_1 = 0.6π_1 + 0.1π_2 + 0.2π_3π_2 = 0.2π_1 + 0.7π_2 + 0.4π_3π_3 = 0.2π_1 + 0.2π_2 + 0.4π_3π_1 + π_2 + π_3 = 1Substituting the third equation into the first two, we get: π_1 = 1.5π_3π_2 = 0.8π_3π_1 + π_2 + π_3 = 1Solving for π_3 in the second equation and substituting into the first equation, we get: π_1 = 0.6π_1 + 0.1π_2 + 0.2(0.625π_2)π_2 = 1.25π_1π_1 + π_2 = 1Substituting π_2 = 1 - π_1 into the first equation, we get: π_1 = 0.6π_1 + 0.1(1 - π_1) + 0.125π_1 0.325π_1 = 0.9π_1 + 0.1 0.575π_1 = 0.1π_1 = 0.174π_2 = 1 - π_1 = 0.826π_3 = 0.625π_2 = 0.516The proportion of the population that will be tall, medium-height, and short in the long run is approximately 17.4%, 51.6%, and 31.0%, respectively.
Answer: (a) $\begin{pmatrix}0.6&0.1&0.2\\0.2&0.7&0.4\\0.2&0.2&0.4\end{pmatrix}$ (b) 0.12 (c) [0.3506 0.4023 0.2471] (d) 17.4%, 51.6%, and 31.0%

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